The price just went up
The announcement rattled NASCAR like an earthquake, with its ripples ranging from garage stalls to board rooms around the sport, and reactions coming from all corners.
Within hours of his announcing he'd depart Dale Earnhardt, Inc., at season's end, Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s decision had elicited responses not only from rival drivers, but also from a speedway owner, a car manufacturer and the main marketer from Sprint Nextel, title sponsor of NASCAR's signature series.
Certainly, though, there were few who heard the news with greater excitement than the other top-team drivers whose contracts are set to expire in coming years. After all, it is they who stand to benefit most from the new standard expected to be set by Junior's new deal, and so they'll be eagerly keeping tabs on Earnhardt's courtship with hopes it leads to their own big payday.
It'll be tough to top the terms earned by Little E - considering he comes as the tour's most popular driver - but his price and pursuit could revolutionize the way deals are done in stock car racing. Traditionally the negotiations have been behind the scenes, and recently they've required drivers to get released early from current contracts, but this one will be conducted out in the open.
It'll dominate the sport's agenda from now until it's resolved. It'll be the subject of endless speculation. It'll be covered with the same attention as the silly seasons of other major sports.
And thus it'll change the way business is done.
"A new paradigm has just been established in American motorsports," said Eddie Gossage, president of Texas Motor Speedway. "Just as Andy Messersmith ushered in the era of modern-day free agency in major league baseball, Dale Jr. is establishing modern-day free agency in NASCAR.
"This will impact future decisions by big-name drivers like Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart and others down the road. You can expect all of them to dip their toes in the free-agency waters when their current contracts expire."
Among those three, Tony Stewart will be the first to the edge of the pool, but he's just one of several attractive options set to cash in when his contract expires after the 2009 season. Here's a look at his situation, and four others in the same free-agent class:
• Tony Stewart - This will be most fascinating case of all the free agents, not only because Tony Stewart is a two-time Cup champ who'll command huge dollars, but because he's as unpredictable as they come. That could mean virtually anything is possible when his contract is up, and after last month's comments about NASCAR being fixed, don't discount retirement so he can go run on random smaller series or have some fun elsewhere in the sport.
If he does stay in stock cars, however, he'll be 38 years old and looking to land one more mega-contract. Given the consistency and success he's been afforded by Joe Gibbs, they'll certainly have the inside track, but Tony Stewart would be silly not to listen to other bidders - which should send the price soaring through the roof.
• Clint Bowyer - After a mediocre rookie campaign - in which he finished 17th - Bowyer is enjoying a breakout season as a sophomore with Richard Childress's race team. He entered last night's race 10th in points, beginning to build on second- and third-place points finishes in the Busch Series over the last two years, and at 27 it seems his best races remain ahead of him.
He still needs to prove he can win at the Cup level, and could stand to be more consistent after collecting just 15 top 10s in his first 47 races, but if he develops either of those he'll be an attractive target for owners seeking just-below-superstar talent when he's on the market at age 30.
• Kyle Busch - His brother Kurt bolted from Roush Racing after winning a championship, and Kyle could be in position to do the same when his contract with Hendrick Motorsports ends in two-plus seasons. He qualified to Chase for the championship in just his second season, and at sixth place this year, some think it's only a matter of time until he gets his title.
So when his deal is up in 2009, Kyle Busch could very well - and talent-wise, will - be coming off his fourth consecutive Chase. He lacks a bit of the charisma that creates commercial appeal, and that'll cost him a little bit of cash, but Kyle Busch's outstanding abilities as a driver will be tantalizing. Plus, he'll be just 24 by then.
• Kevin Harvick - Kevin Harvick was nearly available earlier, but after Childress proved its turnaround last year, he re-upped with the organization and then revived his career by leading the points chase with nine races remaining. This year he won at Daytona and has spent only two weeks outside the top 10, so it seems he's made the turn on a career once plagued by inconsistency.
If he keeps it up, Kevin Harvick has the capability to be the cornerstone of a franchise - like he is at RCR - and with a couple more competitive seasons he'll likely fetch the cash that comes with that responsibility. Like Kyle Busch, likeability may be an issue, but driving ability isn't.
• Jeremy Mayfield - Qualifying for only three of the first 10 races won't help Mayfield's prospects for the future, nor will his ugly departure from Evernham Motorsports last season. But if he's able to stabilize his career by the end of his contract with Bill Davis Racing, the articulate Mayfield might fit someone's plan for a veteran with Chase experience.
His will be an interesting case to watch because it could signify the beginning of a bump for the average level. Like utilitymen in baseball have seen salaries soar because the elite players are getting more, if Mayfield gets good money it could indicate the entire market - not just the big names - is spiking.
If those options don't tickle an owner's fancy, just wait a year longer. Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne could all hit the market then, and - for a variety of reasons - owners will be showering each with affection.
And, in the meanwhile, the drivers might as well do the same with Junior.
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